There is no denying the fact that the discussion surrounding horse racing events is always subject to change. However, the week before the Grand National sees the tone of the discussion shift from speculative to more calculating. While the Grand National has always been a mix of excitement and uncertainty, the week before the start is often the one where the largest shift in public opinion is felt, especially where late withdrawals are concerned.
When the Market Starts to Move
It should come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to the grand national odds that the market does not remain static for long, especially as the final declarations for the grand national odds approach. A late withdrawal can cause a ripple effect throughout the entire field, shortening the odds for one competitor and extending them for another, even before the public reaction has been felt. This is part of the uncertainty and unpredictability for both the bookie and the punter, and part of the excitement for the final days before the start.
Withdrawals are a part of the world of horse racing, especially for an event as grueling as the Grand National. The course is unlike anything else the horses compete on in the United Kingdom. In fact, the preparation required for the start is considerable. This is part of the reason for the late withdrawals; trainers are often reluctant to run their horse unless everything is right. A horse may be a sure bet one week only to be scratched the next.
What sets the National apart from most other races is the number of punters who only make one bet a year. This means that they leave it until the very last moment to make a decision, and any horses that are withdrawn will have a major impact, far beyond the usual racing fan base.
The Influence of Jockey Bookings
Another factor that has a major impact on the market is the announcement of jockey bookings. This is not usually a major factor in most races, but in the Grand National, the experience of the jockey is considered almost as important as the potential of the horse. When a well-known jockey has chosen a particular horse over a rival, the market will usually react within minutes.
This is not always a logical reaction, however, as racing fans will recall the history of the event, its betting terminology and some horses will be considered to have an advantage over others due to the experience of the jockey. When a particular jockey is paired with a particular horse, this will increase confidence, even if there has been no improvement in the form book. This is also recognized by bookmakers, who will adjust the market accordingly, even if the public has not yet noticed the booking.
From the perspective of a punter, these are both frustrating and intriguing times. The odds may fluctuate before there is time to analyze this change, but it is also part of the overall decision-making process. Some punters follow the odds, believing that this is because of inside information, but others look for value among those whose odds are fluctuating because of confusion.
Why late changes matter more in the National
In other races, a late withdrawal would not have a significant impact on many regular punters. The reason for this is that it is not a central event in the sporting calendar. The Grand National is at the heart of British sport, and even people who do not normally follow racing will be interested when it is approaching.
This means that all of the late changes are subject to more discussion than is usually the case. It also serves as a reminder of how difficult it is to make a prediction about this race. The fences, the distance, and the size of the field make it one of the toughest races in sport, and this is reflected in the odds. A favourite can look good one day and vulnerable the next, purely because of a withdrawal or for another reason.
This is all part of the overall experience for punters. The odds are rarely static in the last week of the event, and for those who are experienced, it is all part of the overall fascination. The way in which the odds change in response to each new piece of information is almost as engaging as the race itself.
The role of public money
Another factor that contributes to the volatility of the market prior to the National is the amount of money being placed in a short space of time. This is different from all the other races, where money is spread throughout the week or even days. The Grand National, however, is a race that attracts a lot of attention all at once, and this is reflected in the amount of money that is being placed.
Bookmakers need to balance their books, and this is done by adjusting the price of a horse if they see that a lot of money is being placed on that particular horse. This is not necessarily a reflection of the horse’s potential for winning, but rather a reflection of the bookmaker’s need to balance the books.
This is why punters need to be careful when looking at the market, as a sudden shift in price is not always a reflection of a sudden change in the horse’s potential for winning. It could be a reflection of a lot of people putting a lot of money on a particular horse, for reasons that have nothing to do with the horse’s potential for winning.
Uncertainty is part of the tradition
Late withdrawals and shifting odds are not a problem for the Grand National, however, as they are all part of the tradition.
Every change in the sport serves to remind everyone that the outcome is never certain. A horse that may have been considered a certainty a week before the event may not even start the race, while another horse that may have been considered a non-starter may now become a popular selection. And that is what keeps the betting market going up until the very end.
For many fans of the sport, the days before the event may have been almost as much fun as the event itself. Trying to make sense of what is going on in the market, whether the latest non-starter is more or less important than it looks, has become part of the Grand National tradition. It is a reminder that nothing is ever certain in horse racing or in the world of the punter.
