Mercury vs Storm Prediction, Picks & Odds | 2026

how_to_reg Who will win Mercury vs Storm today: Mercury (-243)

The Phoenix Mercury have had a rough start to the season at 4-11, but their one bright spot came against the Seattle Storm on June 4, when they grinded out a 72-68 road win. That victory snapped a four-game losing skid and proved this Mercury squad can get stops when it matters. Seattle, meanwhile, is 3-12 and has lost four of its last five, with the only win coming against a struggling Atlanta side.

The key difference tonight is health. The Storm are without Katie Lou Samuelson (knee), Dominique Malonga (concussion), and Taylor Thierry (coach’s decision). That’s three rotation players missing from a team that already lacks depth. Phoenix counters with a relatively healthy roster — only Satou Sabally is out with a concussion — and the Mercury’s core of Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner should have enough firepower to handle a depleted Seattle defence.

At -243, the moneyline is short, but it’s the safest path. The Mercury have the better recent head-to-head result and the healthier rotation. Lay the juice and move on.

trending_up Mercury vs Storm Over/Under pick: Under 161.5 (-110)

The total is set at 161.5, and the under is the clear play. When these two teams met on June 4, the final score was 72-68 — a combined 140 points, well below this number. Both offences rank in the bottom half of the WNBA, with the Mercury averaging 78.1 points per game and the Storm just 76.4. Neither team has shown any ability to push the pace or score in bunches.

Seattle’s injury situation only strengthens the under case. Without Samuelson, Malonga, and Thierry, the Storm lose three players who collectively average around 18 points per game. That scoring void is not easily filled, and Seattle’s bench has been one of the least productive in the league all season.

Phoenix isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut either. The Mercury shot just 38.7% from the field in the June 4 win and have failed to crack 80 points in four of their last five games. With both teams struggling to score and key offensive pieces missing, expect another low-scoring grind at Climate Pledge Arena.

payments Mercury vs Storm odds

The market has installed Phoenix as a clear favourite, and the -6.5 spread reflects the gap in health and recent form. The Storm are getting +6.5 at home, but that line has held steady since opening, suggesting sharp money is on the Mercury. The total of 161.5 is a slight dip from the season average for both teams, which aligns with the under trend we’ve identified.

query_stats Mercury vs Storm trend to know

The Mercury are 1-0 against the spread in the season series after covering the -6.5 spread in the June 4 meeting (won by 4, but the line was smaller). The Storm are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and they have failed to cover in three straight home contests. When these two teams have met in Seattle over the last two seasons, the under has hit in four of the last five matchups.

Additionally, Phoenix has been a strong road favourite historically, covering in 60% of spots where they are favoured by 6 or more points. Seattle, as a home underdog of 6+ points, has covered just twice in their last nine attempts. The trend data strongly supports the Mercury -6.5 and the under 161.5.

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sports_basketball Mercury

The Phoenix Mercury are 4-11 and have lost four of their last five games overall. Their sole win in that stretch came against the Storm on June 4, a 72-68 grind that showed what this team can do when it locks in defensively. The Mercury rank 10th in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating, but they have the individual talent to rise above that on any given night.

The backcourt of Diana Taurasi and Kahleah Copper provides scoring punch, while Brittney Griner remains a dominant interior presence on both ends. The Mercury are without Satou Sabally (concussion), which hurts their wing depth, but the core three should be enough against a depleted Seattle side. Phoenix has struggled on the road, but the matchup advantage here is clear.

Defensively, the Mercury have held opponents under 75 points in three of their last six games. If they can replicate that effort, the -6.5 spread is well within reach. The key is limiting turnovers — Phoenix averages 14.2 giveaways per game, which fuels easy transition points for the opposition.

sports_basketball Storm

The Seattle Storm are 3-12 and have lost four of their last five games. The lone win in that stretch came against the Atlanta Dream, but the Storm have been thoroughly outclassed in most other contests. They rank 11th in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating, with no clear strength to lean on.

The injury report is devastating. Katie Lou Samuelson (knee), Dominique Malonga (concussion), and Taylor Thierry (coach’s decision) are all out. That’s three rotation players missing from a team that already lacks depth. Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor will need to carry the scoring load, but both have been inconsistent this season. Loyd is shooting just 41% from the field, and Magbegor has been prone to foul trouble.

Seattle’s home court at Climate Pledge Arena has not been a fortress — the Storm are 1-6 at home this season. They have failed to cover the spread in three straight home games and have lost by double digits in two of those. Without three key contributors, it’s hard to see them keeping pace with a Mercury team that already beat them head-to-head.

medical_services Mercury vs Storm latest injuries

Phoenix Mercury

• Satou Sabally — Out (concussion)

Seattle Storm

• Katie Lou Samuelson — Out (knee)
• Dominique Malonga — Out (concussion)
• Taylor Thierry — Out (coach’s decision)

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