伊利诺伊州立法者再次针对体育博彩行业大幅提高税收，这已是该州运营商连续第二年面临资金压力。此项在立法会议最后时刻通过的法案，已促使行业领袖探索新途径——包括运用预测市场——以缓解不断上涨的运营成本。.
立法者最后一刻的新举措给行业带来不确定性
The Illinois General Assembly ended its spring session with much drama by passing a $55.2 billion state budget that contained several tax provisions that were hotly opposed. Included in those measures was an unexpected imposition specifically on sports betting operations, which caught all stakeholders unprepared for its timing and scope. The legislation came only days before the session deadline, with little opportunity for public discussion or input from the industry.
民主党立法者在多重财政承诺带来的预算压力下，新增了体育博彩税，同时提高烟草产品税并修改外州实体的商业所得税。由于审议时间有限，共和党立法者强烈批评该流程缺乏透明度。.
州长JB Pritzker已表示将签署完整预算方案，尽管博彩业代表及伊利诺伊州众多商业团体强烈反对。此举意味着体育博彩增税必将生效，从根本上改变州内博彩公司的运营环境。.
累进税制带来不成比例的负担
伊利诺伊州已于2024年实施累进税制，根据运营商业绩实行浮动税率，放弃了此前统一适用于所有公司的15%税率。新税制下，运营商按调整后总收入的20%基准税率纳税，高业绩公司税率逐级递增，年收入超2亿美元的企业最高税率达40%。.
最新税收方案引入按投注笔数收费的新制度，对市场头部企业影响更大。企业在本财年总投注额前2000万美元阶段，每笔投注需支付0.25美元；超出该限额后，每笔投注费升至0.5美元。.
This especially impacts frontrunners DraftKings and FanDuel, who together hold about 75% of Illinois’ sports betting market. Analysts estimate that if it had been applied retroactively, FanDuel would have had to pay an extra $86 million in taxes, and DraftKings would have faced about $79 million in additional expenses based on their trailing twelve-month performance.
累进税制叠加按笔收费使伊利诺伊州成为头部运营商税负最重的司法管辖区之一。总税负现已逼近纽约州水平——该州所有体育博彩公司均按总收入的51%统一纳税，新罕布什尔州也实行该税率，而DraftKings在该州是独家运营商。.
但不同规模与市场地位的运营商受影响程度差异显著。行业巨头将承担更大税负，规模较小运营商负担相对较轻。据估算，伊利诺伊州其余八家运营商的累计额外税负约2000万美元，仅相当于市场领导者的一小部分。.
市场领导者的战略应对方案
行业分析师指出头部运营商可能采用的几种应对策略。其中一项措施是设置最低投注额，但这可能损害客户体验，导致用户流向竞争平台或非法渠道。.
企业也可能重新考虑向消费者收取附加费。DraftKings在去年增税后曾短暂研究该方案，但因FanDuel未采取类似措施而很快放弃。头部企业间的竞争使得单方面收费难以持续。.
An even more interesting alternative is growth into prediction markets, which currently operate under distinct regulatory regimes that could usher in tax benefits. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have acknowledged exploring such opportunities during recent earnings calls. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said they are keenly watching developments in prediction markets while Flutter Entertainment — FanDuel’s parent — has brought in experts from Betfair’s exchange business to help them evaluate potential applications.
对于寻求规避伊利诺伊州税负的运营商而言，预测市场可能带来变革性突破。这种平台允许用户就未来事件结果进行合约交易，涵盖体育赛事、政治动态等多元领域。由于预测市场的监管认定区别于传统体育博彩，这为运营商开辟了规避重税的创收路径。.
Companies like Kalshi have demonstrated the viability of prediction market platforms in the United States, offering models that sports betting firms could adopt. Adding a prediction market function could allow operators to retain customer engagement while shifting monetization methods beyond usual betting items.
The Illinois tax rise has drawn much criticism from trade reps and expert regulators. The Sports Betting Alliance, speaking for top ops incl DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM & Fanatics Sportsbook called the measure discriminatory and constitutionally questionable.
批评者主张加重税负终将转嫁至消费者，具体表现为促销活动缩减、赔率体系调整或直接收取费用。此外，成本上升可能形成竞争压力，驱使客户流向不缴纳州税且不受消费者保护规则约束的境外非法运营商。.
伊利诺伊州连续增税引发对该州体育博彩长期吸引力的担忧。尽管短期内可满足预算需求，但成本持续增加的累积效应终将影响运营商的市场投资与参与决策。.
按投注笔数征税的先例可能促使其他财政压力较大的州效仿，进而形成更严峻的运营环境。.
伊利诺伊州的现状典型反映了财政收入需求与行业可持续发展之间的持续博弈：如何通过适度征税创造公共效益，同时维持良性监管的体育博彩市场。.
伊利诺伊州立法者实施体育博彩附加税增税方案 行业巨头酝酿战略转型——英国博彩百科.
