Some wagers are designed to favour the house far more than they do the player. Sucker bets—one of the most enduring features of sports betting and casino gambling—give the illusion of good value while quietly draining your bankroll, offering hope but steadily eroding funds.
These predatory wagers attract both inexperienced and impulsive gamblers. For more anecdotal examples, you can find discussions of what qualifies as a sucker bet on Reddit.
投注中的概率角色
要识别或避免傻瓜式投注，首先要了解庄家和赌场是如何设置赔率以确保长期获胜的。虽然所有赌博都有固有的庄家优势，但某些赌注的营销方式会增强这种优势。
These bets can carry over a 20% house edge, compared with about 5–10% on standard casino games. The concept of a sucker bet dates back to carnival games and early gambling houses that used mathematical misdirection to entice players.
现代体育博彩公司和赌场利用行为心理学和概率论更新了这些方法。
在线赌博的影响
Online gambling has fuelled the rapid spread of sucker bets, as digital platforms offer endless exotic wagers. In the US, regulators such as the Nevada Gaming Control Board only step in when practices cross into clearly deceptive territory—most of these bets are technically legal.
博彩公司认为，赔率显示得很清楚，投注者可以自行理解其中的数学计算。研究表明，大多数休闲赌徒缺乏准确评估此类赌注的统计知识。
吸金投注的原理是歪曲真实概率与赔率之间的关系。试想一下，掷硬币每赌注 1 英镑可获得 90 便士，而不是双数。
That small edge, compounded over time, generates significant profits for the house while ensuring long-term losses for players. The most effective sucker bets combine several distortions of probability.
三队连赌的赔率可能是 6:1，而真正的对赌概率接近 8:1。赔率看似丰厚，实则隐藏着低劣的价值。
Bookmakers know most bettors focus on potential winnings rather than the actual expected value.
复合投注和提示
追加投注是体育比赛中最不划算的投注之一，因为多次正确投注的概率远远没有反映在赔率上。典型的四队连环投注大约有 6.25% 的胜率，但赔率仅为 10:1，而公平赔率应超过 15:1。
Teasers allow players to adjust the point spread at the cost of reduced payouts. They feel safer but maintain a strong house edge. For more details, see sucker sports bets on BoydsBets.
异国情调的提案注
Teasers reduce player win probability by around 10–15% compared with straight bets, according to professional handicappers. Exotic proposition bets—on specific game events or player performances—often carry huge house edges.
第一球会是好球吗？哪支球队先得分？这些赌注的赔率往往远远低于真实概率，玩的是快速行动的冲动，而不是合理的投注策略。
新奇赌注的价值同样很低。投注新奇事物的乐趣可以掩盖高达 30% 的庄家边际。
This is especially common with novelty markets on major events such as the Super Bowl or elections. For an overview, see Tucson Weekly.
赌场边注
Blackjack insurance is a classic sucker bet. It pays 2:1, yet the real odds against the dealer having blackjack are around 2.18:1. New table games often feature side wagers with similar poor value.
Even progressive side bets with large jackpots rarely justify their steep house edges. Bonus features on slot machines often fall into the same trap—paying for special rounds that reduce overall expected value, while flashing lights and sound effects mask the faster drain on your bankroll compared to base play.
关于“傻瓜赌注”的心理
吸金赌利用了多种认知偏差。可得性启发式使大赢家看起来比实际赢家更有可能，但却很少见。
规避损失的心理促使玩家用更高风险的投注来追逐损失。体育博彩公司通过市场营销、选择性记忆暗示和情绪触发等手段放大了这一点。
这对多注平局尤其有效。错过一次选择，感觉就像差点赢了，而不是输了，因此会反复尝试。
近乎失误 "的效果也是奖金轮和累积大奖的主要特征。
经验丰富的赌徒会对每次投注进行预期值计算--将赔率中的隐含概率（热门赔率 100/（赔率+100），冷门赔率 100/（赔率+100））与自己的估计值进行比较。
二者之间的巨大差距就是下注失败的信号。谨慎的资金管理可提供额外的保障。
专业投注者每次下注通常只冒 1-2% 的风险。相比之下，"傻瓜式 "下注往往会诱使玩家下注 10-20%，当赔率对他们不利时，就会加速损失。
Bankroll management is as much about psychology as maths—emotions can cloud judgement after a string of defeats.
职业体育赌徒比利-沃尔特斯常说，"赌博赚钱最简单的方法就是不下烂注"。他数十年的成功更多来自于避免下低值赌注，而不是选择赢家。
迈克-阿庞特（Mike Aponte）指出，赌场游戏中可以战胜的游戏和不能战胜的游戏之间存在明显区别。"他说："'吸金赌局'的设计目的就是为了长期立于不败之地。
His team’s wins came from spotting and exploiting rare positive-expectation opportunities. For more, see the breakdown of sucker bets on Bankroll Sports.
随着体育博彩在美国和其他市场的推广，应用程序和在线平台让人们更容易在比赛中途下注这些价值不高的冲动性赌注。在国外投注的英国游客请注意，由于当地法律法规的限制，您在英国赌场可能享受到的免费饮料优惠或某些促销活动可能并不适用。
Better gambling education can help players recognise and avoid these traps. In time, regulators may require clearer probability disclosures—similar to the payout tables on slot machines.
在此之前，做出明智的决定是你抵御傻瓜式投注的最好方法。赌博背后的数学原理不会改变，但知识可以让天平稍稍向玩家倾斜。
从了解 "烂赌 "中得到的重要启示是：赌场和庄家设计游戏的目的是为了赢钱，而最诱人的赌注通常提供最差的价值。聪明地投注--优先考虑价值而不是刺激--将使你的银行账户在赔率真正对你有利的罕见情况下保持活力。
