伊利诺伊州立法者再次针对体育博彩行业大幅提高税收，这已是该州博彩运营商连续第二年面临财政压力。此项在立法会议最后时刻通过的法案，已促使行业领袖探索新途径（包括运用预测市场）以缓解不断上涨的运营成本。.
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The Illinois General Assembly ended its spring session with much drama by passing a $55.2 billion state budget that contained several tax provisions that were hotly opposed. Included in those measures was an unexpected imposition specifically on sports betting operations, which caught all stakeholders unprepared for its timing and scope. The legislation came only days before the session deadline, with little opportunity for public discussion or input from the industry.
民主党立法者在多重财政承诺带来的预算压力下，新增了体育博彩税，同时提高烟草产品税率并调整外州企业的所得税政策。由于审议时间有限，共和党立法者强烈批评该流程刻意不透明且缺乏公开性。.
尽管博彩行业代表及伊利诺伊州众多商业团体强烈反对，州长JB Pritzker已明确表示将签署完整预算案。此举意味着体育博彩税率上调即将生效，从根本上改变州内博彩企业的运营环境。.
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伊利诺伊州已于2024年实施累进税制，根据运营商业绩实行差异化税率，由此取消了原适用于所有企业的统一15%税率。新税制下，运营商按调整后总收入的20%基准税率缴税，高营收企业适用递进税率，年度收入超2亿美元的企业最高税率达40%。.
最新税收方案引入按投注笔数计费的新体系，对市场头部企业影响更为显著。企业在本财年内需为前2000万美元总投注额中的每笔投注支付0.25美元，超出该限额后，每笔投注费用将升至0.5美元。.
This especially impacts frontrunners DraftKings and FanDuel, who together hold about 75% of Illinois’ sports betting market. Analysts estimate that if it had been applied retroactively, FanDuel would have had to pay an extra $86 million in taxes, and DraftKings would have faced about $79 million in additional expenses based on their trailing twelve-month performance.
伊利诺伊州的累进税制叠加按笔计费模式，使其成为头部运营商税负最重的司法管辖区之一。总税负水平现已逼近纽约州（所有体育博彩企业均按总收入的51%统一纳税）。该税率同样适用于新罕布什尔州，DraftKings在该州享有独家运营权。.
但税制改革对不同规模运营商的影响存在显著差异。行业巨头将承担绝大部分新增税负，规模较小运营商的负担相对较轻。据估算，州内其余八家运营商累计新增税负约2000万美元，仅相当于市场领导者的一小部分。.
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行业分析师指出头部运营商可能采取多种策略应对税负增长。其中一项措施是设置最低投注门槛，但此举可能损害用户体验，导致用户流向竞争平台或非法渠道。.
企业或重新考虑向消费者转嫁费用——去年增税后DraftKings曾短暂探索该方案，但因FanDuel拒绝跟进而放弃。头部企业间的竞争使得单方面收费调整难以持续。.
An even more interesting alternative is growth into prediction markets, which currently operate under distinct regulatory regimes that could usher in tax benefits. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have acknowledged exploring such opportunities during recent earnings calls. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said they are keenly watching developments in prediction markets while Flutter Entertainment — FanDuel’s parent — has brought in experts from Betfair’s exchange business to help them evaluate potential applications.
对寻求规避伊利诺伊州税务风险的运营商而言，预测市场可能带来变革性机遇。这种市场本质上是允许用户就未来事件（体育赛事、政治动向等）结果进行合约交易的平台。由于预测市场的监管待遇区别于传统体育博彩，这为运营商开辟了规避州级重税的创收路径。.
Companies like Kalshi have demonstrated the viability of prediction market platforms in the United States, offering models that sports betting firms could adopt. Adding a prediction market function could allow operators to retain customer engagement while shifting monetization methods beyond usual betting items.
The Illinois tax rise has drawn much criticism from trade reps and expert regulators. The Sports Betting Alliance, speaking for top ops incl DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM & Fanatics Sportsbook called the measure discriminatory and constitutionally questionable.
自最高法院废除PASPA法案允许各州体育博彩合法化以来，博彩监管顾问B Global Advisors负责人Brendan Bussmann强调，按投注笔数征税的做法史无前例。他认为此举对博彩行业创新与技术发展充满敌意。.
批评者主张最终税负将转嫁至消费者，具体表现为促销力度缩减、赔率体系调整或直接收取服务费。此外，成本上升可能形成竞争压力，驱使客户流向不缴纳州税且不受消费者保护规则约束的境外非法运营商。.
伊利诺伊州接连提高税率引发对其体育博彩市场长期吸引力的担忧。尽管短期内可满足预算需求，但成本持续增加的累积效应终将影响运营商的市场投资与参与决策。.
此项按投注笔数征税的政策可能引发其他财政压力州份效仿，进而形成更严峻的行业运营环境。.
伊利诺伊州的现状典型反映了财政收入需求与行业可持续发展之间的持续张力：如何在保持良好监管的体育博彩市场的同时，通过适度征税实现公共福利最大化。.
