伊利诺伊州立法者再次针对体育博彩业大幅提高税收，这已是该州博彩运营商连续第二年面临财政压力。此项在立法会议最后时刻达成的决议，正促使行业领袖探索新途径——包括运用预测市场——以缓解日益增长的业务成本。.
立法者最后一刻的新举措给行业带来不确定性
The Illinois General Assembly ended its spring session with much drama by passing a $55.2 billion state budget that contained several tax provisions that were hotly opposed. Included in those measures was an unexpected imposition specifically on sports betting operations, which caught all stakeholders unprepared for its timing and scope. The legislation came only days before the session deadline, with little opportunity for public discussion or input from the industry.
面临多项州财政承诺带来的巨大预算压力，民主党立法者在增加烟草税并调整外州企业所得税的同时，新增了体育博彩税。由于审议时间有限，共和党立法者强烈批评该流程缺乏透明度且存在刻意模糊之处。.
尽管博彩业代表与伊利诺伊州众多商业团体强烈反对，州长JB Pritzker已明确表示将签署完整预算案。此举意味着体育博彩增税必将生效，从根本上改变该州境内博彩企业的运营环境。.
累进税制结构造成不成比例的负担
伊利诺伊州已于2024年实施基于运营商业绩的累进税率制度，放弃了原先统一适用于所有企业的15%税率。新税制以20%的调整后总收入基准税率为基础，对高营收企业实行阶梯增税，年收入超过2亿美元的企业最高税率达40%。.
最新税收方案引入了按投注笔数计费的新体系，将对市场头部企业产生更大影响。企业在本财年内需为前2000万美元总投注额中的每笔投注支付0.25美元费用。超过该限额后，每笔投注费用将升至0.5美元。.
This especially impacts frontrunners DraftKings and FanDuel, who together hold about 75% of Illinois’ sports betting market. Analysts estimate that if it had been applied retroactively, FanDuel would have had to pay an extra $86 million in taxes, and DraftKings would have faced about $79 million in additional expenses based on their trailing twelve-month performance.
累进税制与按注收费新模式使伊利诺伊州成为头部运营商税负最重的司法管辖区之一。其总税负现已逼近纽约州水平——该州对所有体育博彩企业统一征收51%的总博彩收入税。新罕布什尔州也采用该税率，且DraftKings在该州享有独家运营权。.
但税制影响因企业规模与市场地位呈现显著差异。行业巨头将承担绝大部分新增税负，而其余八家伊利诺伊州运营商预计仅需分摊约2000万美元额外税款，不足头部企业税负的零头。.
市场领导者的战略应对方案
行业分析师指出头部运营商可能采用的几种应对策略。其中设置最低投注额要求的方案虽能缓解税负，但可能损害用户体验，驱使客户流向竞争平台或非法渠道。.
企业或重新考虑向消费者转嫁费用——去年增税后DraftKings曾短暂探索此路径，但因FanDuel拒绝跟进而放弃。头部企业间的竞争使得单方面收费难以持续。.
An even more interesting alternative is growth into prediction markets, which currently operate under distinct regulatory regimes that could usher in tax benefits. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have acknowledged exploring such opportunities during recent earnings calls. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins said they are keenly watching developments in prediction markets while Flutter Entertainment — FanDuel’s parent — has brought in experts from Betfair’s exchange business to help them evaluate potential applications.
对寻求规避伊利诺伊州税负的运营商而言，预测市场可能带来变革性突破。这种允许用户对未来事件结果进行合约交易的平台——无论涉及体育赛事、政治动向或其他领域——因监管分类区别于传统体育博彩，或为运营商开辟规避重税的新营收渠道。.
Companies like Kalshi have demonstrated the viability of prediction market platforms in the United States, offering models that sports betting firms could adopt. Adding a prediction market function could allow operators to retain customer engagement while shifting monetization methods beyond usual betting items.
The Illinois tax rise has drawn much criticism from trade reps and expert regulators. The Sports Betting Alliance, speaking for top ops incl DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM & Fanatics Sportsbook called the measure discriminatory and constitutionally questionable.
自最高法院废除PASPA法案允许各州合法化体育博彩以来，博彩监管顾问B Global Advisors负责人Brendan Bussmann指出，按注征税模式实属空前。他认为此举是对博彩行业创新与技术的敌视。.
批评者主张最终税负必将转嫁至消费者：无论是通过削减促销活动、调整赔率体系还是直接收取费用。此外，成本上升可能形成竞争压力，驱使客户流向不缴纳州税且不受消费者保护规则约束的境外非法运营商。.
伊利诺伊州连续增税引发对该州体育博彩长期吸引力的担忧。尽管短期内可满足预算需求，但成本持续增加的累积效应终将影响运营商的投资与市场参与决策。.
此类按注征税模式可能被其他财政压力较大的州效仿，进而形成更具挑战性的全国运营环境。.
伊利诺伊州的现状典型反映了财政收入需求与行业可持续发展之间的持续张力：如何在保持适度税收以增进公共福利的同时，不损害受监管体育博彩市场的健康生态。.
